Employment
Economic and Monetary Analysis Department – Macroeconomic Analysis Section
Apr 2022 – Current
European Central Bank, Research Analyst
Business cycle analysis division -DGE/BCA
Sep 2019 – Sep 2020
Instrumental to redirect the work of the division on the economic implications of the pandemic. In charge of producing daily information on the evolution of the pandemic in the EA and globally. Set-up and automation of a new database on high frequency and confidence indicators, now used to assess in real time the economic situation. Assessment of the impact of the lockdown measures on sectoral value added losses and to the construction of the scenarios used in the ECB macroeconomic forecasts exercises. Preparation of the briefing material for the Senior Management and the Executive Board external meetings on the economic impact of the pandemic.
European Central Bank, PhD Trainee
Business cycle analysis division -DGE/BCA
Sep 2018 – Sep 2019
Development of a database on durable consumption goods in the EA countries and production of empirical analysis on the determinants of durable consumption in the euro area (paper published). Policy reporting as an ECB Economic Bulletin article. Empirical analysis on business cycle determinants on euro area business cycle and its regional dimension, using regional data (NUTS2 and NUTS3). Preparation of the briefing material for the Senior Management and the Executive Board external meetings on the economic impact of the pandemic.
EU IFIs Network, Policy advisor team member
EU Independent Fiscal Institutions network
Dec 2017 – Jan 2018
Coordinator: Dr. Michal Horvath.
University of York, Research Assistant
Department of Economics and Related Studies
Sep 2016
Tuning and cleaning for online publication of the code used in the paper Coroneo, L., Giannone, D. & Modugno, M., 2016. Unspanned Macroeconomic Factors in the Yield Curve. Journal of business & economic statistics: a publication of the American Statistical Association, 34(3), pp.472–485. Coordinator: Prof. Laura Coroneo.
Collegio Carlo Alberto, Research Assistant
Research Center at University of Turin (Italy)
Dec 2014 – Jun 2015
Project “Wealth at Retirement and Savings Adequacy (WeRSA)” funded by European Commission, DG Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion, “Call for proposals for actions related to the development of pension modelling and for support for mutual learning in national pension reform processes (PROGRESS)”, 2013-2015. Principal Investigator: Prof. Elsa Fornero.
Publications
Policy documents
Papers
Education
Ph.D. in Economics, University of York, UK
Dissertation: A non-linear analysis of fiscal multipliers and consumption drivers.
Supervisors: Dr. Vanessa Smith, Dr. Paulo Santos-Monteiro.
Examiners: Prof. Anthony Garratt (External), Dr. Joao Madeira (Internal).
September 2021
MSc in Economics, University of Turin, Italy
110/110 cum laude and with honors
2014
BSc in Economics, University of Turin, Italy
Curriculum in Economics and Law
2012
Research interests...
Applied Macroeconomics.
Monetary Economics.
Applied Econometrics.
Fiscal policy in open economies.
Nonlinear dynamics.
...and ideas
Nonlinear dynamics in post-pandemic consumption recovery (with G. Krustev, ECB).
Using non-structured data from Twitter to track economic phenomena (with A. Paccagnini, UC Dublin).
Redefining core and periphery using NUTS sub-national data.
Investigating the behaviour of fiscal multipliers in US under a nonlinear setting.
Dissertation chapters
Cyclical drivers of euro area consumption: what can we learn from durable goods?
We studies the cyclical dynamics of consumption in the euro area (EA) and the large EA countries by distinguishing between durable and nondurable expenditures; we adopt a theoretical partial equilibrium framework and a time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression (TVP-SVAR). Main findings include a faster and stronger reaction of durables to monetary shocks and spillovers from durable to nondurable consumption when agents are financially constrained.
Published as Cyclical drivers of euro area consumption: What can we learn from durable goods? (with G. Krustev). Journal of International Money and Finance. 2020.
Non-linear effects of the financial cycle on fiscal multipliers
We use a Smooth Transition VAR with Generalized Impulse response analysis to investigate the state conditionality of fiscal multiplier to financial cycle. Main results include the existence of a diminishing return to larger expansionary shocks and the existence of larger multipliers in recessions.
Fiscal non-linearities induced by an informative real-financial economic cycle
We study the effect of a combined real and financial cycle that we estimate via dimension reduction techniques from a large dataset of macroeconomic and financial variables. Main results include diminishing return to larger expansionary shocks and support the use of a richer index to inform the economy evolution allowing to adopt more parsimonious model.
Revisiting the measure of output response to fiscal policy
We investigate the econometric features of the non-linear Smooth Transition VAR. We focus on the proper set-up of the regression design matrix and on the limits of its estimation technique.
Grants and awards
Aronson Teaching Prize – Best delivered module, 3rd Year: Macroeconomics 3
2017-2018
Royal Economic Society (RES) – Conference Grant (£300)
2018
International Association for Applied Econometrics (IAAE) – Travel Grant (¥18,000)
2017
Ellis Hunter Teaching Scholarships (£2,500)
2017
ESRC Research Training Support Grant Top-Up
2017
Ellis Hunter Teaching Scholarships (£2,500)
2016
ESRC 3-year Doctoral Grant with Economics Enhanced Discipline Award. (£66,000 Stipend + Tuition Fee & Research Funding)
2015-2018
Conferences and workshops
2022
29th Symposium of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics (Virtual); Scottish Economic Society Annual Conference (Glasgow); 28th International Conference of the Society for Computational economics (Dallas).
2021
7th RCEA Time Series Workshop (Virtual).
2020
European Economic Association annual congress (Virtual).
2019
KOF Swiss Economic Institute Workshop: The Euro Area at 20 – Evaluating the Real Side of the Economic and Monetary Union (Zurich); The 50th Anniversary Conference of the Money, Macro & Finance Research Group (London).
2018
Scottish Economic Society annual conference (Perth); The 26th Annual Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics Symposium (Tokyo); 24th International Conference of the Society for Computational economics (Milan).
2017
58th Annual Conference of the Italian Economic Association (Cosenza); The Society for Economic Measurement conference (Boston); International Association for Applied Econometrics conference (Sapporo).
Teaching experience
Seminar to PhD students: “What comes between a problem and a policy recommendation”
University of Economics in Bratislava
April 2023
Graduate Teaching Assistant, Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York:
Financial and time-series econometrics (UG)
Autumn 2017
Macroeconomics 3 (UG)
Autumn 2017
Economics II – Macroeconomics (UG)
Spring 2018
Macroeconomics II (UG)
Autumn 2017 – Summer 2018
Economics II – Macroeconomics (UG)
Autumn 2016 – Spring 2017
Mathematics I (UG)
Autumn 2016
Skills
Languages: Italian (Native), English (Proficient).
Software & Tools: LaTeX, Matlab, Mathematica, R, STATA, NetLogo.
Scripting and programming languages: C/C++, python, perl, sql, JavaScript, xhtml, css, php.
Department experience
PhD cohort representative
Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York
September 2015 – August 2018
References
Dr. Michal Horvath
Minister of Finance
Ministry of Finance the Slovak Republic
Email: minister[at]mfsr.sk
Dr. Vanessa Smith (PhD Supervisor)
Department of Economics
University of York, UK
Email: vanessa.smith[at]york.ac.uk
Prof. Laura Coroneo
Department of Economics
University of York, UK
Email: laura.coroneo[at]york.ac.uk
Ing. Ján Beka
Economic and Monetary Analysis Department – Macroeconomic Analysis Section (Head of Section)
National Bank of Slovakia, SK
Email: jan.beka[at]nbs.sk
Dr. Paulo Santos-Monteiro (PhD Supervisor)
Department of Economics
University of York, UK
Email: paulo.santosmonteiro[at]york.ac.uk
Dr. Beatrice Pierluigi
Directorate General Economics – Business Cycle Analysis (Head of Division)
European Central Bank, DE
Email: beatrice.pierluigi[at]ecb.europa.eu
Miscellanea
Summer School on Gender Economics and Society
ITC – International Training Centre of the United Nations.
2014
Invited panellist
Participatory rights in the environmental decision making process and the implementation of the Aarhus Convention: a comparative perspective.
Host: Turin Bar association and the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research.
2014
Schools and education in Kagera – An empirical analysis
Analysis on school facilities and households education choices in Kagera region using the World Bank Kagera Health and Development Survey.
Final assessment in a MSc course.
2013
Waste management – An empirical analysis
Research essay on the efficiency, the costs and the determinants of effectiveness of recycling in Italy.
Final assessment in a MSc course.
2013