Heslington Hall, May 2018 © University of York/Alex Holland

Employment

Národná banka Slovenska (NBS), Senior Economist

Economic and Monetary Analysis Department – Macroeconomic Analysis Section

Apr 2022 – Current

Producing specific and overall analyses and projections of macroeconomic developments, including the identification and assessment of potential risk trends in this area. Producing cross-cutting strategic documents in the field of monetary policy and macroeconomics.

European Central Bank, Research Analyst

Business cycle analysis division -DGE/BCA

Sep 2019 – Sep 2020

Instrumental to redirect the work of the division on the economic implications of the pandemic. In charge of producing daily information on the evolution of the pandemic in the EA and globally. Set-up and automation of a new database on high frequency and confidence indicators, now used to assess in real time the economic situation. Assessment of the impact of the lockdown measures on sectoral value added losses and to the construction of the scenarios used in the ECB macroeconomic forecasts exercises. Preparation of the briefing material for the Senior Management and the Executive Board external meetings on the economic impact of the pandemic.

European Central Bank, PhD Trainee

Business cycle analysis division -DGE/BCA

Sep 2018 – Sep 2019

Development of a database on durable consumption goods in the EA countries and production of empirical analysis on the determinants of durable consumption in the euro area (paper published). Policy reporting as an ECB Economic Bulletin article. Empirical analysis on business cycle determinants on euro area business cycle and its regional dimension, using regional data (NUTS2 and NUTS3). Preparation of the briefing material for the Senior Management and the Executive Board external meetings on the economic impact of the pandemic.

EU IFIs Network, Policy advisor team member

EU Independent Fiscal Institutions network

Dec 2017 – Jan 2018

Coordinator: Dr. Michal Horvath.

University of York, Research Assistant

Department of Economics and Related Studies

Sep 2016

Tuning and cleaning for online publication of the code used in the paper Coroneo, L., Giannone, D. & Modugno, M., 2016. Unspanned Macroeconomic Factors in the Yield Curve. Journal of business & economic statistics: a publication of the American Statistical Association, 34(3), pp.472–485. Coordinator: Prof. Laura Coroneo.

Collegio Carlo Alberto, Research Assistant

Research Center at University of Turin (Italy)

Dec 2014 – Jun 2015

Project “Wealth at Retirement and Savings Adequacy (WeRSA)” funded by European Commission, DG Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion, “Call for proposals for actions related to the development of pension modelling and for support for mutual learning in national pension reform processes (PROGRESS)”, 2013-2015. Principal Investigator: Prof. Elsa Fornero.

European Central Bank, Research Analyst

Business cycle analysis division -DGE/BCA

Sep 2019 – Sep 2020

European Central Bank, Research Analyst

Business cycle analysis division -DGE/BCA

Sep 2019 – Sep 2020

European Central Bank, Research Analyst

Business cycle analysis division -DGE/BCA

Sep 2019 – Sep 2020

Education

Ph.D. in Economics, University of York, UK

Dissertation: A non-linear analysis of fiscal multipliers and consumption drivers.
Supervisors: Dr. Vanessa Smith, Dr. Paulo Santos-Monteiro.
Examiners: Prof. Anthony Garratt (External), Dr. Joao Madeira (Internal).

September 2021

MSc in Economics, University of Turin, Italy

110/110 cum laude and with honors

2014

BSc in Economics, University of Turin, Italy

Curriculum in Economics and Law

2012

Research interests...

Applied Macroeconomics.
Monetary Economics.
Applied Econometrics.
Fiscal policy in open economies.
Nonlinear dynamics.

Source: Experience. But also, © Randall Munroe, xkcd.com

...and ideas

Nonlinear dynamics in post-pandemic consumption recovery (with G. Krustev, ECB).
Using non-structured data from Twitter to track economic phenomena (with A. Paccagnini, UC Dublin).
Redefining core and periphery using NUTS sub-national data.
Investigating the behaviour of fiscal multipliers in US under a nonlinear setting.

Dissertation chapters

[Job Market paper] Cyclical drivers of euro area consumption: what can we learn from durable goods?

We studies the cyclical dynamics of consumption in the euro area (EA) and the large EA countries by distinguishing between durable and nondurable expenditures; we adopt a theoretical partial equilibrium framework and a time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression (TVP-SVAR). Main findings include a faster and stronger reaction of durables to monetary shocks and spillovers from durable to nondurable consumption when agents are financially constrained.
Published as Cyclical drivers of euro area consumption: What can we learn from durable goods? (with G. Krustev). Journal of International Money and Finance. 2020.

Non-linear effects of the financial cycle on fiscal multipliers

We use a Smooth Transition VAR with Generalized Impulse response analysis to investigate the state conditionality of fiscal multiplier to financial cycle. Main results include the existence of a diminishing return to larger expansionary shocks and the existence of larger multipliers in recessions.

Fiscal non-linearities induced by an informative real-financial economic cycle

We study the effect of a combined real and financial cycle that we estimate via dimension reduction techniques from a large dataset of macroeconomic and financial variables. Main results include diminishing return to larger expansionary shocks and support the use of a richer index to inform the economy evolution allowing to adopt more parsimonious model.

Revisiting the measure of output response to fiscal policy

We investigate the econometric features of the non-linear Smooth Transition VAR. We focus on the proper set-up of the regression design matrix and on the limits of its estimation technique.

Grants and awards

Aronson Teaching Prize – Best delivered module, 3rd Year: Macroeconomics 3

2017-2018

Royal Economic Society (RES) – Conference Grant (£300)

2018

International Association for Applied Econometrics (IAAE) – Travel Grant (¥18,000)

2017

Ellis Hunter Teaching Scholarships (£2,500)

2017

ESRC Research Training Support Grant Top-Up

2017

Ellis Hunter Teaching Scholarships (£2,500)

2016

ESRC 3-year Doctoral Grant with Economics Enhanced Discipline Award. (£66,000 Stipend + Tuition Fee & Research Funding)

2015-2018

Conferences and workshops

2022

29th Symposium of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics (Virtual).

2021

7th RCEA Time Series Workshop (Virtual).

2020

European Economic Association annual congress (Virtual).

2019

KOF Swiss Economic Institute Workshop: The Euro Area at 20 – Evaluating the Real Side of the Economic and Monetary Union (Zurich); The 50th Anniversary Conference of the Money, Macro & Finance Research Group (London).

2018

Scottish Economic Society annual conference (Perth); The 26th Annual Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics Symposium (Tokyo); 24th International Conference of the Society for Computational economics (Milan).

2017

58th Annual Conference of the Italian Economic Association (Cosenza); The Society for Economic Measurement conference (Boston); International Association for Applied Econometrics conference (Sapporo).

Teaching experience

Graduate Teaching Assistant, Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York:

Financial and time-series econometrics (UG)

Autumn 2017

Macroeconomics 3 (UG)

Autumn 2017

Economics II – Macroeconomics (UG)

Spring 2018

Macroeconomics II (UG)

Autumn 2017 – Summer 2018

Economics II – Macroeconomics (UG)

Autumn 2016 – Spring 2017

Mathematics I (UG)

Autumn 2016

Skills

Languages: Italian (Native), English (Proficient). 
Software & Tools:  LaTeX, Matlab, Mathematica, R, STATA, NetLogo. 
Scripting and programming languages: C/C++, python, perl, sql, JavaScript, xhtml, css, php.

Department experience

PhD cohort representative

Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York

September 2015 – August 2018

References

Dr. Vanessa Smith (PhD Supervisor)
Department of Economics
University of York, UK

Dr. Michal Horvath
Head of Economic and Monetary Analysis (Chief Economist)
National Bank of Slovakia, SK

Prof. Laura Coroneo
Department of Economics
University of York, UK

Dr. Paulo Santos-Monteiro (PhD Supervisor)
Department of Economics
University of York, UK

Dr. Beatrice Pierluigi
Directorate General Economics – Business Cycle Analysis (Head of Division)
European Central Bank, DE

Miscellanea

Summer School on Gender Economics and Society

ITC – International Training Centre of the United Nations.

2014

Invited panellist

Participatory rights in the environmental decision making process and the implementation of the Aarhus Convention: a comparative perspective.
Host: Turin Bar association and the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research.

2014

Schools and education in Kagera – An empirical analysis

Analysis on school facilities and households education choices in Kagera region using the World Bank Kagera Health and Development Survey.
Final assessment in a MSc course.

2013

Waste management – An empirical analysis

Research essay on the efficiency, the costs and the determinants of effectiveness of recycling in Italy.
Final assessment in a MSc course.

2013