Policy reports

Research interests...

Applied Macroeconomics.
Monetary Economics.
Applied Econometrics.
Fiscal policy in open economies.
Nonlinear dynamics.

Source: Experience. But also, © Randall Munroe,

...and ideas

Nonlinear dynamics in post-pandemic consumption recovery (with G. Krustev, ECB).
Using non-structured data from Twitter to track economic phenomena (with A. Paccagnini, UC Dublin).
Redefining core and periphery using NUTS sub-national data.
Investigating the behaviour of fiscal multipliers in US under a nonlinear setting.

Dissertation chapters

[Job Market paper] Cyclical drivers of euro area consumption: what can we learn from durable goods?

We studies the cyclical dynamics of consumption in the euro area (EA) and the large EA countries by distinguishing between durable and nondurable expenditures; we adopt a theoretical partial equilibrium framework and a time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression (TVP-SVAR). Main findings include a faster and stronger reaction of durables to monetary shocks and spillovers from durable to nondurable consumption when agents are financially constrained.
Published as Cyclical drivers of euro area consumption: What can we learn from durable goods? (with G. Krustev). Journal of International Money and Finance. 2020.

Non-linear effects of the financial cycle on fiscal multipliers

We use a Smooth Transition VAR with Generalized Impulse response analysis to investigate the state conditionality of fiscal multiplier to financial cycle. Main results include the existence of a diminishing return to larger expansionary shocks and the existence of larger multipliers in recessions.

Fiscal non-linearities induced by an informative real-financial economic cycle

We study the effect of a combined real and financial cycle that we estimate via dimension reduction techniques from a large dataset of macroeconomic and financial variables. Main results include diminishing return to larger expansionary shocks and support the use of a richer index to inform the economy evolution allowing to adopt more parsimonious model.

Revisiting the measure of output response to fiscal policy

We investigate the econometric features of the non-linear Smooth Transition VAR. We focus on the proper set-up of the regression design matrix and on the limits of its estimation technique.

Conferences and workshops


29th Symposium of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics (Virtual).


7th RCEA Time Series Workshop (Virtual).


European Economic Association annual congress (Virtual).


KOF Swiss Economic Institute Workshop: The Euro Area at 20 – Evaluating the Real Side of the Economic and Monetary Union (Zurich); The 50th Anniversary Conference of the Money, Macro & Finance Research Group (London).


Scottish Economic Society annual conference (Perth); The 26th Annual Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics Symposium (Tokyo); 24th International Conference of the Society for Computational economics (Milan).


58th Annual Conference of the Italian Economic Association (Cosenza); The Society for Economic Measurement conference (Boston); International Association for Applied Econometrics conference (Sapporo).